Mannkal Economic Education Foundation

Mannkal Student Internship Blog

Cathal Leslie – Week Eight

Cathal Leslie

3 March 2016

The final week of my internship started like any other, but with a shadowing thought that it was about to come to an end. After some busy past few weeks I finally got the opportunity to finish a piece for the CPS on the growth of Peer to Peer lending and touch up on another about reform in Vietnam for CapX (both to be published soon).

My last task for the CPS was about researching recession indicators. There has been a recent bear UK stock market with the media exclaiming that it is indicative of an impending recession. However to quote American economist Paul Samuelson, stock markets have predicted 9 of the past 4 recessions.

Rather it was argued, recessions are far more accurately predicted by a combination of unemployment figures, housing starts and manufacturers indexes. When lined up with UK GDP growth, this combination of figures predicted each of the last 4 recessions stretching back to the 1980s. Indicating that the current decline is more likely a correction of the large rise in asset prices due to quantitative easing by the UK government.

Alas however, it came time to say goodbye on Friday and after sharing a bottle of champagne with the staff at both the CPS and CapX we said our farewells.

I can scarcely believe how quickly the past 8 weeks have gone. After travelling from rural Ireland to metropolitan France , to researching arguments that have appeared in national newspapers, it has truly been an enriching experience and one I won’t be soon to forget!

I must give great thanks to Ron Manners and the Mannkal team for what has proven to be both a formative and challenging experience and I would encourage anyone reading to get cracking and apply for an opportunity of a lifetime!!!

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